Fuzzy Wheeler Stats

The other night I worked out a bunch of stats for the top two teams in our Div II competition.  Sadly, it appears I failed to save the results of my calculations so I won't be able to record them for posterity unless I go through the tedious counting and calculating all over again.  No doubt it would be simpler to do the second time around, but I still can't be bothered.  So I'll post my statistically inspired ruminations in their more fuzzy form.

I was able to derive comparative team statistics of Shooting Percentage (Goals/Shots on Goal), Save Percentage (Goals Against/Shots on Goal Against) and a raw team Corsi Percentage (SOG/(SOG+SOGA).  I only worked up the numbers for the top two teams because we are drawing clear ahead of the other two.  Although the sample size is only eight games (320 minutes), the regular season is only 12 games so it's a fair sample for that purpose, albeit subject to a large range of apparent variablility and wild regressions. 

For interest's sake, I also looked at how many points the players on the teams generate as a measure of 'assisting goals' - this last due to the ready availability of the stats and the different styles of play of the two teams.  For all the statistical weaknesses of my data, it is what I have so I made the most of it.

From what I recall, our shooting percentage dropped from 23% to 21% from game 7, Save Percentage went up a percentage point to 86%, Corsi remained about the same at 65%.  About two thirds of our goals are 'assisted'.  The Bumpers SP% was 21% (holding even), SV% was 91%, Corsi 57%.  Less than a third of their goals were 'assisted'.

Until recently, the Big Question about hockey stats was whether they show something meaningful about the performance and style of the team/player analysed.  That question has been answered fairly conclusively in the affirmative in the NHL world, and will no doubt permeate far and wide as a result.  This small study is another affirmation of this answer, because what it shows does reflect the performance and stylistic difference between the two teams studied.

For example.  After our most recent game against the Rockers it was interesting to hear what spectators and our opponents thought, as well as what our own opinions were.  It seemed to me that we basically weathered the early storm, suppressed shots and shot attempts through the game, increasingly played our defensive game (ie. when we didn't have possession of the puck) up their end of the rink, passed the puck around a lot, combined to outfox the goalie and score our goals.  I was told by both observers and opponents that they rarely had uncontested possession, couldn't get shots off, and we played an 'ice hockey style of game' with a lot of (passing) 'triangles' making it hard to get the puck off of us.  In other words, we seem to play an aggressive as well as attractive team game and don't rely on any one player for options.  Which is pretty cool for a Div II inline hockey team at the bottom of the world!

The Key stat, of course, is WINS.  The Bumpers have 7 and we have 6.  They have a total of 43 goals to our 40, and we have two more goals against than they do.  Thus, we need to beat them by three or more goals next week if we want to take top spot.

It looks like being a great game.